I've always wondered, though, whether Hope is all that fancy a gift.  I mean, I've seen it in Red Sox fans out here, and Hope sure has its downside.  The Sox can never do the decent thing and just suck.  Nooooooooo.  Each year they'll find a way to get exquisitely close to success but find a more exquisite way to squander that opportunity.  Then again this year they won it all, so go figure.  The last two games have given Packer fans legit reasons to entertain Hope in their cheese riddled hearts.  Let's hope the Packers didn't do this just to teach us all a bit more about Despair.

Pouncing on Parcells

Funny side note.  Every week as I sit down with Mr. Walker to write this column, I go to the Packers web site and print out the PDF file of the game summary.  Usually it's about ten pages long and has all offensive and defensive stats, as well as a play by play written record of the entire game.  Very useful when I have some nearly illegible notes scrawled about a play sometime in the third quarter I wanted to remember, but that my bad memory or Mr. Walker has since let go.  On the top of the first page of the summary, each week, I am informed "this summary and play by play is for the express purpose of assisting media [that's me!] in their coverage of the game; any other use of this material is prohibited without the written permission of the National Football League." I ask you, what else would I be doing with the game summary?  "Hey guys, sorry to say, but I'm using the game summary to churn yak butter, taunt squirrels, and cut lines of crystal meth, though not necessarily in that order.  Whaddya gonna do about it, huh?"

I've always been told that the second year is when Bill Parcells teams make the big jump. They may be making a jump, but if they are it's backwards.  To see a Parcells team just pushed around like that on defense was strange.  I'm happy I didn't have to be in that meeting room when the tape was broken down.  Statistically, the Packers blew the Cowboys out of the water.  The averaged a stunning 7.1 yards per rush, though Ahman Green's 90 yard TD scamper does skew that number a bit.  The Pack converted 69% of their third downs, while allowing Dallas only a 42% conversion rate.

Not all was peachy, though.  Dallas averaged 4.1 yards per rush, even though the score forced them to give up on the run game by the middle of the third quarter.  They also gave up 362 yards of total offense to a less than celestial offensive team.  They also managed only two sacks, neither by a defensive lineman.  However, at this stage in the season, this is the way Mr. Walker and I figured the team would have to win.  The defense is doubtlessly getting better, but the offense is still going to have to light it up to win.  This is not a Packer team that will win a lot of 13-10 games, at home or away.  Another heads up to Sherman the play caller.  We agree that the offense seems more in rhythm and that for whatever reason they seem to be working better.  Also notable is that they Packers were on fire during the third quarter, a time when they have seemed to lose a little steam of late.  Don't change it while it's still working.

No. 4

Whenever someone asks me, at a particularly gruesome looking moment for the Packers, how I think my team can possibly win I always say the same thing--we've got Favre and they don't.  Yes, it sounds simplistic, but I think it's true.  And yes, every now and then he has a truly horrible game, but so did Johnny Unitas and Joe Montana.  This past Sunday was pretty much everything that is good about Favre in one game.  He made extremely smart decisions.  He threw some balls as light as Tim Couch and rifled others so hard it was hard to believe.  He blocked.  He joked with his guys.  He hurt his throwing hand and didn't even take off a single play.

That arm, what a difference does that make?  Think of it this way, you're a defensive back, he can make any throw to any part of the field at any time.  Even after covering your guy for five seconds, an eternity for an NFL pass attempt, he can still beat you running away on the opposite side of the field.  Now, you're a linebacker.  Favre has seen every blitz and pressure and defense there is.  Most likely he was starting NFL games before you made it to college.  One tiny mistake and he'll make you pay for it, tipping off a blitz, shading to one side of the field, it doesn't matter.  You have to do everything just right time and again of you'll wind up looking like the Cowboys did this past week.

And last, but not least, Favre blocks.  Sherman said in his post game news conference that they don't practice that and he doesn't like it happening in games, but that he can't really do anything about it.  Sometimes the "I'm just a down home Southern boy what likes to cut my own grass" routine can get a bit hokey, but on game day he really does play like a high school kid who happens to have a cannon of an arm.  He's already proven he's tough as they come, won a Super Bowl, broken tons of records, and nobody would think twice if he didn't block.  Yet he still does.  And again, if you're Donald Driver or Marco Rivera, or any of the players on offense, wouldn't it be inspiring to have your shoo in first ballot Hall of Famer placing his multimillion dollar ass on the line for you?

No. 84

This has become a repeating theme, and I promise I'll get off it one of these weeks, but Javon Walker put together yet another superb game against the Cowboys.  I think I said it earlier, that he might become "Terrell Owens with a good attitude." I'm not sure he's quite there yet, but he's damn close and has not even a shred of the negative baggage that comes with TO.  In the past few weeks, he's also shown that he is now essentially a complete player.  Where his specialty has been the longer, home run routes, on Sunday he also became the guy who converts third downs by running slants.  I think it was a play on third and three in the second quarter where he ran a slant, got hit hard, and carried three guys about six yards extra to move the chains.  Most receivers develop things they do particularly well--they become deep pattern guys or "possession" guys or jump ball guys or work on certain routes most of the time.  It's only the elite receivers who do all of those things, and Walker is certainly one of those now.  Oh, he's also leading the NFL in receiving yards, averaging over 100 yards per game, and only Randy Moss and TO have more touchdowns--eight to Walker's six.  Whenever people talk about what a horrible GM and coach Sherman is, I always think of the day when he picked Walker in the first round and I thought it was insane.  Look who's right now?

Go Go Gibbs

I read an interesting piece that the outcome of the Skins game previous to presidential elections predicts the outcome.  If the other team wins the challenger wins, if the Skins win the incumbent sticks around another four years.  Not noted was that regardless of the chain of events, pretty much all the rest of us lose.  I'm voting for a third party candidate so I guess for my guy to win James Madison will have to reanimate and play QB for Washington.  Actually, Madison was pretty short, so maybe he'd be a tailback.  I'd say either is about as likely as my candidate winning.

But we're here to talk about football, not politics.  Joe Gibbs brought Greg Williams in to build his defense, and they're doing a great job.  The Skins defense ranks near the top of nearly every defensive category, and first in total yards per game.  They also rank second in what I think is the most important defensive category, points per game, doling out to their opponents a measly 15.8 on average.  The problem that their offense only averages 14.0 points per game rank, and is coughing up the ball to the tune of a -8 takeaway differential.  It's hard to win a lot of games averaging two touchdowns and over -1 in turnovers per game.

The first thing to check before a game is the injuries, and in both cases the defenses will likely be missing key players.  LaVar Arrington is listed as questionable on the injury report and, just as Mr. Walker and I sat down to write this, alien DNA engineered safety Sean Taylor was busted for drunk driving and Gibbs said he will be inactive for the game.  $18 million contract and he can't afford a cab.  The Packers on defense might be without both Darren Sharper and Al Harris.  Losing either one would probably be a big deal but both of them out is a little like missing both Ahman Green and Javon Walker on offense, except that the offense has much better backups.  Ahmad Carroll will start at left CB and if Harris can't go it's another rookie in the right.  The Skins field very good starting receivers Rod Gardner and Laverneus Coles, and I expect Gibbs to pick on whichever rookie has been in the lineup the least.  Gibbs was always superior at finding players he thought he could exploit, and you can bet he'll have plays specifically designed to go after Jue if he starts for Sharper and Joey Thomas if he starts for Harris.

Last week the Skins played the disturbingly bad Chicago Bears and came out with a win, and 167 rushing yards.  That would indicate an improved offense if it weren't for, well, the Bears.  This is a game that looks awfully nice for the Packers with a streaking offense and a suddenly-at-least-no-longer-embarrassing defense.  We say the Packers win decisively to get to .500 before their bye, 24-13.  Go Packers!

Random Thoughts

One of the things to remember about the NFL, and actually life in general, is that things usually return to normal.  For example, Duante Culpepper is completing over 73% of his passes.  The four NFC QBs who round out the top five are Donovan McNabb (65.7%), Kurt Warner (65.2%), Favre (64.6%), and Tim Rattay (64.4%).  In other words, the difference between the fifth and fourth place QBs is less than 1.5% while the difference between the first and second is over 7%.  That just can't last.  He's a very very good QB and I'd love to have him after Favre retires (I don't want anyone else until he does), but if Joe Montana and Johnny Unitas can't complete 70% of their passes nobody can. Culpepper is going to have some ugly games as the year progresses and he'll come down a lot closer to the rest of the NFL universe.  Here's hoping one of those ugly games comes vs.  the Packers.

Watched the Browns-Eagles game this week, and the Eagles were lucky to win it.  Also, Butch Davis' club showed real guts in that game.  In fact, I've almost never seen a "must score" drive so early in the game, and they did.  And what a jerk TO is.  Tearing down a sign put up by a fan after a TD pass?  How junior high school is that?

Was very sad to see the Jets lose to the Pats, but the Jets certainly showed they are for real.  They hung tough and it wouldn't surprise me to see them pay back the favor at Giants Stadium later this year.

It was fitting that in the Yankees-Cards series, Pedro Martinez pitched one absolutely transcendent game.  Boston fans can be brutal, they complained that Ted Williams took to many walks, and they've been on Pedro because he's not quite the Pedro of three years ago.  But on that night he was, and if he pitches somewhere else next year (which is quite likely) that was a game to remind those carping in Boston what he did for them for so long.

TCB is a contributing writer for Packer Palace.
© October 29, 2004. 

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