We mention this only because for the second (or maybe third) week in a row the Packers won games where, by many standards, they did not play well or at least did not play well for much of the game.  I'm sure the Russian judge would have docked the green and gold a significant number of points for good bounces and favorable calls in these three games, but as we keep on saying, a win is a win is a win.  The NFL season really gets hot from here on out.  The bye weeks are over.  Six regular season games remain.  Only two NFC teams (Atlanta and Philly) seem locks to make the playoffs.  All sixteen games count equally, but it SEEMS like these count more.  For the Packers, we finally get to see exactly what kind of team they are.  In the next two weeks, they get the Rams at home on Monday night, and then play the following Sunday at Philadelphia.  Their main rivals in the NFC North, the Vikings, get Jacksonville at home and then play at Chicago the next week.  It wouldn't surprise me and Mr. Walker one bit of the team leading after these next two games wins the division.  These are big, big games folks.  Go Packers!

You Done Got Favred

Greg Easterbrook, Brookings Institute fellow and author of Tuesday Morning Quarterback at NFL.com, recently held a contest for football based neologisms.  One of them was "what the Favre?" as an expression of incredulity.  No. 4 does occasionally take some mysterious risks, that final pass in the playoffs vs. Philly during the playoffs last season is a great example.  This neologism in usage would be something like, what the Favre was he thinking when he decided to sleep with his girlfriend's sister?  However, I propose an alternative neologism, in which we make is name into a verb.

Favre (pron. farv) v. Favred, Favring, Favres.

1.  To make an opposing quarterback look less competent.
2.  To win at the end of a game, esp. with a two minute drill.
3.  To win a game despite emotional and/or physical pain.

So then, in David Carr we have a quarterback who was Favred this past weekend.  And Carr is no slouch, just ask Matt Millen and Steve Mariucci who are enjoying the Joey Harrington Era rather less than Dom Capers is enjoying his flashy Carr which was purchased in the same draft as Harrington.

Then again, the whole Texans team done got Favred, and in many ways beating Houston the way the Packers did was more impressive than piling up points against the Cowboys or Lions.  Here's why.  So often over the past few years the Packers have dropped games like this, games where they might not have played to their potential but were still in a position to win.  Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  Against the Texans, though, when they were down to Tony Fisher and William Henderson in the backfield and Favre had to chuck it up 50 times in one game, the Packers found a way to win instead of a way to lose.  The team that lost to the Giants earlier this season would not have won on the road against the Texans.  Playoff teams win those games, and the rest of the teams don't, and Mr. Walker and I want to note the win at Houston as a potential statement that the Packers are finally ready to win however they have to.

On the individual performances front, we turn immediately to Donald Driver, who has had a season not quite as good as Mr. Walker expected.  Partly this is the result of Javon Walker (yes, that OTHER Mr. Walker again) maturing into an elite player, but partly Driver has just seemed a bit quiet.  Ten catches for 148 yards will spruce up a stat line and a season, though, and it was fun to see Driver looking like the Pro Bowler he was in 2002.  Next up for the big up is Al Harris.  Yes, Andre Johnson had 107 yards on six catches, but 49 of those yards were on a short catch and run.  Any time a receiver gets a ball five yards downfield and runs 45 more, there's sufficient blame to spread it around to more than one player.  Take away that one catch and Harris did an exceedingly good job on a superb pass catcher.  On defense, KGB picked up two sacks (Mr. Walker notes that such a performance was predicted here last week, but I don't want to toot my own horn) while playing around the quarterback more than we've seen him do most of this season. Na'il Diggs also had a great game, making eight tackles and seeming to be near whoever had the ball most of the time.  Actually, the Packer defense in general played a fairly solid game, despite the three scoring drives in the three scoring drives in the second quarter. They held the Texans to 144 total passing yards and 5 for fifteen on third downs.

Are All Interceptions Equal?

Three minutes to play in the fourth quarter, score tied, Packers are at the Houston 43, third down and 17 yards to go because of an offensive pass interference call on Driver. Favre takes the ball in the shotgun, drops a few more steps, and heaves a long ball to Antonio Chatman.  OH NO!  INTERCEPTION!  Is this another one of those "what the Favre" moments for No. 4?

Absolutely not.  One of the strange things in pro football is that so few players seem to really take into account the down, distance, and game situation.  The Jets clock mismanagement two weeks ago was just the most egregious example of smaller things that happen all the time.  Using the second Favre pick as an example.  The score is tied, so there's no way the Packers go for it fourth down.  17 yards is a lot to pick up in one play, and though I can't see game tape, I'll bet there was nobody in the 10-15 yard range open. Some QBs would try to protect their stat and QB rating and either scramble around or throw the ball away.  However, Brian Barker can't punt the ball to one of his own guys, so Favre wisely hucked up a long pass to Antonio Chatman.  Had he caught it, the Packers probably go on to score.  An incomplete pass means a punt.  An interception gives the Texans the ball inside their own twenty, which is the goal of a good punter anyway. Because of the time, score, and game situation, the best and smartest play was to throw the risky pass--it was a decision with virtually no downside and a real potential upside.

What is so surprising seeing pro players make silly, unaware plays is that many college players do the opposite.  During the Florida-Florida State game the Saturday past, Florida running back Ciatrick Fason made just such a wise play.  With about three minutes to go, the Gators had the ball and were protecting a 20-13 lead.  Fason took the ball from his QB, ran left and was bottled up quickly.  As the defender tried to push him toward the sideline, Fason just fell down on purpose, keeping the clock ticking and further suffocating the hopes of the Seminoles to come back.  He made the smart play for his team, instead of trying to pick up a few extra pointless yards.  A team with the lead and less than three minutes on the clock should essentially never have a player go out of bounds--even a scrambling QB should slide.  Props to No. 4 for making most of those decisions the right way considering the down, distance, clock, and game situation.

Rams Eat Turf

This is one of those games any true Packer fan has been waiting forever to see.  Currently, weather.com has Monday with a high of 37 degrees and a 30% chance of snow, so it should be plenty chilly for the tailgating in the parking lot.  Under GM/coach Sherman, the Packers have built themselves more and more for just this kind of late season game. He has put together a superior group of running back, a top flight offensive line, and a defense whose main strength might be toughness and whose weakness is probably a lack of top line speed in a few positions.  Put that team outside in the cold mud of November 29th and good things should happen.  That same team on a fast rug in a dome in St. Louis (or, lest we forget, Minneapolis) and it's a different ball game.  The Packers finally get their shot at the Rams the way they want to take it.

Having introduced the Packer press world to the word "hagiography" in last week's column, anyone reading this will have a chance to use that word during the coverage of the game Monday night, and during the coverage leading up to it.  Len Pasquarelli over at ESPN.com took the "small town values made this small town boy succeed" angle.  Never mind that the Favre of Kiln Mississippi seemed hell bent on booze fueled self destruction, and that big city values like drug rehab seemed to do him rather a lot of good.  Rest assured that a new, more powerful bellows has been hastily attached to the blast furnace in ABC's adjective smithy to find new words for Al Michaels and John Madden to use in place of amazing, stunning, and great.  We have always said, without a shred of scientific proof to buttress the statement, that a year of playing in the NFL has to be as tough on the body as a fairly serious car crash.  That No. 4 has endured the equivalent of 12 car crashes in as many years and still goes to work every day is, in fact, amazing, stunning, and great.

All hagiography aside, though, there are two teams playing on Monday night.  Both have serious injury problems that could turn the tide of the game.  St. Louis is banged up pretty bad in the secondary, and it's a secondary that has used two players (Tod McBride and Antuan Edwards) who couldn't stick with the Packers.  Considering the state of the Green Bay secondary, that's a grim commentary indeed.  For the green and gold, it's the offensive backfield where both Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport are most likely game time decisions.  Mr. Walker has been a Davenport fan from the get go, he's been party to his share of dorm room shenanigans as well, and we think that if either Green or Davenport are close to 100% the running game shouldn't suffer too much.  However, if both of them miss the game there are real concerns about whether the Packers can run well, or even much at all.  Another question will be whether any of newly acquired backs are "assignment sure" enough to play.  That's a nice way of saying they might miss a blitzing linebacker and halt Favre's starting streak at 200.  The Rams are also dangerously thin on the offensive line, with two starters already gone for the season and Marc Bulger hitting the turf far too often for his own good.  The rawest starter on the line is at right tackle, so one wonders if KGB will get a few snaps from that side of the line on obvious passing downs.  The Rams gave up six sacks vs. Buffalo, but interestingly five of them came from defensive backs, and the other one was a defensive end.

That pass rush will be crucial, because St. Louis continues to run a lot of multiple wide receiver sets with very long routes by the receivers, and continues to use fewer players in pass protection than any other NFL team.  If Bulger can stand back in the pocket for 5 seconds, somebody is going to get open against even the best of defensive backfields.  Mr. Walker fully expects more of those jailbreak blitzes that have been called less and less by the Packer defensive staff.  For the 11th week running, we also have to wonder of the Packer DBs are ready to deal with a combination of Isaac Bruce, Tory Holt, Marshal Faulk, and Shaun McDonald.  This game, and next week against Philadelphia, will show everyone a good deal about how the Packers can expect to play against the better offenses if they make the playoffs.

Speaking of playoffs, both of these teams need this game pretty bad to make it into January play.  The Rams are 5-5 but trail the Seahawks by only one game in their division.  The Packers, of course, are tied with the Vikings in an NFC North that looks like a two pony race.  The problem predicting this game is the Jeckyl and Hyde nature of the Rams, a team that in the past four weeks lost to Buffalo and Miami (allowing each over 30 points) but beat the Seahawks 23-12.  If Green or Davenport are healthy to play at pretty much their top level, we call this one for the Pack by a touchdown or more.  But as much as we like Tony Fisher, if he's the only option at tailback we will be very apprehensive about this game.  Mike Martz is a camera moth, and would like nothing more than spoiling Favre's big night on national TV, but even with the uncertainty in the Packer running game we think they pull this one out.

Random Thoughts

In the continuing Jacksonville Jaguars Mathematical Mystery Watch, the Jags are 6-4 and have been outscored so far this season 166-181.  This means the gap is closing, but it's still bizarre.

The Indianapolis Colts could hang 40 points on the German army at the Somme.  They may be the first team to be able to win a Super Bowl purely with offense.

We give ourselves a smallish pat on the back for noting after the victory over Tennessee that the Bears were winning with smoke and mirrors in their mini-streak of three straight wins.  After being shellacked by the Colts, which is nothing to be surprised by, they were pushed around by an abysmal Cowboys squad on Thanksgiving Day.  Defensive touchdowns and game winning safeties are nice things, but they cannot be counted on week after week.

I realized recently that I'm a sports pundit.  Granted, I'm an exceedingly unimportant and uncompensated one, but if ya write about sports, you're a pundit.  This realization forces me into an unpleasant task--I have to write something about Ron Artest and the Pistons-Pacers brawl.  I do this only because it's written into the Geneva Conventions and the United Nations charter.  Sorry folks, just obeying international law, so here it is.  I REALLY like a good fight, and that one was spectacular.  The whole time I saw it I was wishing I could have been there and taken a few big ones from Artest on video.  I would have tried to fake a freaking coma and then called two dozen personal injury attorneys to conduct a closed bid auction for the opportunity to represent me.  I'll bet instead of the usual 33% I'd have a top quality lawyer working for me at under 25%.  Yes yes, it's a sign of the decline of American civilization, but of course it's no such thing.  Sports violence in this country is squirt gun stuff compared to what the ever refined Europeans and the hot blooded South Americans do at their sporting events.  When I was living in Austria, there was a "friendly" soccer match between an English club and AC Milan. Friendly means the game didn't count on anyone's international records, they were just playing to play a game and get ready for the European club championships.  English soccer fans are notorious drunken rioters, and sure enough there was enough civil unrest that the Italian army was called in with tanks to restore civic order.  German speaking pundits were not horrified at the disintegration of the social contract because of a soccer game, but were withering critics of the Italian government not anticipating the event and calling out the army sooner.  Students of history might note this is not the first time Germans have criticized Italians for being insufficiently marshal, but all Mussolini references aside this was the equivalent of a pre-season NFL game and it involved tanks in the streets.  Within that context, the Artest/Pacers fight looks like pretty small stuff.

Have the Thanksgiving day NFL games ever been such pure form turkeys?

At the far margins of the Packer press, word of the coaching staff liking J.T. O'Sullivan seeps out.  You heard it from me and Mr. Walker first, if J.T. stays healthy and hangs around for a year or two, he'll start for the Packers.

TCB is a contributing writer for Packer Palace.
© November 26, 2004.

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