This time around we'll go all the way back to the playoff loss, but more importantly we'll also consider the entire season since the last playoff loss.  We'll also try using some war fighting theory to do so, and of course we'll be looking at the offseason and try to figure out what the Packers need to do to get back on top of the NFC.  Finally, writing this piece has been great fun all year--thanks again to the Packer Palace guys for letting me carry on.  If they'll let me I'll chip in with a pre and post draft column and then kick it back into gear when training camp opens.  So when I say Go Packers!  I now mean the 2005 Packers.

GO PACKERS AND THANKS AGAIN!

We begin with what I wrote only a few days after losing to the Vikings...

Norsemen Pillage

It's almost funny how one play can be such a microcosm of what was wrong all year with the Packer defense.  Fourth snap of the playoff game.  Packers are in man coverage.  Nick Barnett leaves Moe Williams to try to tackle a scrambling Daunte Culpepper, and Culpepper flips the ball to Williams.  Williams streaks down the sideline, where Darren Sharper whiffs mightily on the tackle, Williams scampers in for the touchdown.  Barnett's mistake was mental, he had to stick with Williams until Culpepper crossed the line of scrimmage and couldn't pass the ball, and he had to stick with Williams because nobody else was around to cover him.  As bad as that was, Sharper's miss was in some ways worse.  Yes, tackles along the sideline are tough, but it's not like Sharper is a second year guy just breaking into the league.  And it's not like Moe Williams is Barry Sanders. Sharper's whiff could be used in an instructional video about how NOT to tackle.  The textbook tackle is bend the knees, back straight, hit the guy in the chest, wrap your arms around him and if you can't put him on the ground hold on until your teammates arrive. What Sharper did was dive low trying to hit Williams on the hip or leg with a shoulder pad.  Such a move will get a high school safety yanked for a few snaps to get his head back in the game.  This from a player who signed a $30 million contract that included what was at the time the largest bonus ever for a safety--it's not too much to expect such a player to at least tackle consistently.

Then we had the grand irony of Mark Roman supposedly calling out Ahmad Carroll on the sideline.  Yes, Carroll did some really stupid stuff, but if there has been one player responsible for spectacular Turnstile Tackling on the Packer defense in 2004 it's Roman. In fact, various Packer press outlets have reported that Bhawoh Jue would have been starting were the Packers not concerned that benching Roman would be a mental killer for the safety they hoped would be a three year starter.  Before Roman starts pointing fingers at rookies who inevitably make mistakes, he ought to check in the mirror and consider the generally lackluster and often grim performance of his own veteran self.

Any chance at being successful on offense was shut down after the Vikings jumped to a 17-0 lead and Javon Walker got hurt.  With a healthy receiving corps, the Packers might have been able to play catch up ball and made it.  Even working with Andrae Thurman (who?) they did manage to close the gap to 24-17 at one point.  But with Ferguson still unable to play thanks to one of the dirtiest hits I've ever seen, and Walker limping around on the sideline in a warmup, the Packers were doomed.  Had the game been closer, they could have tried to run the ball to victory (though once again, an injury to Najeh Davenport would have been a problem), but down two touchdowns is not the time to start running the Lombardi sweep.  Favre threw four picks.  At least one of them wasn't in any way his fault, but the other three appeared to be at least partially on No. 4.  This continues a disturbing trend in playoff games.

Amazingly, the Packers did do some things well on defense, at least in short spurts.  They held the Vikings to 5-13 on third down.  They came up with a few stops in the third and fourth quarters and looked to be getting things together.  Then, of course, a blown blitz call let a one legged Randy Moss hop into the endzone to catch another touchdown pass.

Funny personal story.  I don't get any over the air Fox HDTV channels, and my satellite dish (acquired exclusively in order to watch Packer games) doesn't give me local channels in HD.  So I went to my favorite neighborhood bar to watch the game and declared that I was playing the Javon Walker Game.  Each time he caught a touchdown pass I would have a shot of heavenly Jameson's Irish whiskey.  I was somewhat concerned I'd wind up passed out on the floor, but instead wound up a little thirsty. Thank goodness I wasn't playing the Green Bay Secondary Blown Coverage Game.  I'd have finished the game in an ambulance.  A Vikings fan helpfully suggested I play the Brett Favre Interception Game.  Bastard.

We Got Ourselves A GM!

In a move surprising absolutely nobody, Packers president Bob Harlan chose Ted Thompson to become general manager of the team, with godlike powers including the ability to hire and fire coaches.  We all know that the coach/GMs can't be successful, except of course when they are.  Mike Shannahan, for example, won two super bowls as coach/GM.  While Bill Belichick has a GM, he has as much control as Sherman did until recently and makes absolutely every decision for that team, or chooses to whom it is delegated.  With Belichick as de facto coach/GM the Patriots have done, uh, reasonably well one might say.  We think, to be honest, that the hiring of a GM will have a great deal less to do with the future success of the Packers than anyone thinks.  Certainly less than if, for example, Ahmad Carroll learns to cover someone without being penalized.

The reason we believe this is because Mike Shannahan won those super bowls because he had a great offensive line, a solid defense (coached in part by much missed Ed Donnatel), and John Elway.  I call this the Pat Riley Paradigm.  Riley came to New York to coach the Knicks, in part to prove that there was more to his success with the Lakers than starting Kareem, Magic, and James Worthy.  Turns out with Patrick Ewing, John Starks, and Charles Smith, Riley couldn't win the big one.  This leads us to the truest maxim in professional sport--as close to the second law of thermodynamics as we can have in the sporting world.  This maxim is: absent truly ghastly coaching, the team with the better players is likely to win.  Many in Packerland act like Mike Sherman is Butch Davis, bumbling his way through each off season while micro-managing the ticket takers and concession employees.  Sherman isn't Ozzie Newsome, but as GM managed to draft Javon Walker, Robert Ferguson, and Nick Barnett; got Al Harris for a second round draft pick; has been in the playoffs each of the past four years (only Philly can say the same); won the NFC North in 2004; and picked up waiver wire guys like Michael Hawthorne who could at least contribute.  It's natural to want change when things aren't going well, but a team going to the playoffs each year but not winning it all isn't the end of the world. Aside from some real problems on defense (see below) the Packers aren't a team in need of overhaul.  So, Packer fans, be careful what you wish for.

Strange as this may sound, I think his demotion puts Sherman in a MUCH better position. First, he's no longer the single target for criticism within the organization.  Second, he can get a little more sleep.  Third, he can point to the GM when a player is released or a coach fired, "hey bro, I stuck up for you but the big boss man said you gotta go.  Sorry bub." Most importantly, though, he is in his last year of his contract.  If I were Mike I wouldn't sign a requisition for Post-It notes for fear Harlan had slipped a contract extension into my hands.  I would have all pens removed from my office and avoid drinking with the boss.  Sherman can coach out this year and see how he likes the arrangement.  If it suits him (and Thompson of course), then he signs a contract extension.  If it doesn't, or if Thompson wants him gone, as a free agent he'll be on the top of anyone's list to replace a coach or coach/GM.  If he were playing cards, he was holding ace/jack and the flop just came up jack, jack, four.  The hand still has to be played, but for Sherman there are a lot more winners in that deck than losers.

Coaching Changes?

Those of you who, for mysterious reasons, have read more than one of our previous columns know that in general we are loathe to demand a coaches head.  When the rest of the Packer punditry was calling for Sherman's ouster, we were saying that no matter what the coaches do the players have to execute the calls properly.  I also noted that many of those who, early in the season, wanted Sherman run out of town were the same people who decided that after his accidental takeover of the offensive play calling he was the answer to the newly discovered Tom Rossley problem.  So then, in a generalized sense me and Mr. Walker think that a guy like Mike Sherman, with years of success coaching at the highest levels of football, can be trusted to make the right decisions.

Bolstering that case is Ron Wolf.  This offseason has featured a few interviews with Wolf in the mainstream Packer press.  Wolf has been unequivocal in his support of Sherman, saying in one interview that "You'd be hard-pressed to find coaches out there as good as Mike Sherman, they're not walking around out there on the streets." Remember that Wolf was the true architect of the Packer resurgence.  He traded for Favre.  He signed a comparatively obscure offensive coordinator named Mike Holmgren to be a head coach. He drafted or traded for dozens of players who made the Packers an elite franchise in the 1990's.  He also hired Ray Rhodes and traded up to get Jamal Reynolds, so nobody's perfect, but when Wolf says a coach is worth keeping it isn't the guy at the bar flapping his gums.

On offense there is simply no reason to make any changes.  Though they weren't the fearsome running team that they were in 2003, the Packer still ranked third in the NFL for total yards and fifth for the much more critical stat of points per game.  Only the Patriots, Chargers, Colts, and Chiefs ranked higher than the Packers in points per game, and all were elite offensive teams in the AFC this year.  Minnesota, Philly, and Seattle all ranked below the green and gold in terms of points scored.  Even with Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport nicked up most of the season, the Packers ranked in the top third of the league in rushing yards per game and were fifth in passing yards per game.  In fact, the teams ranked above the Pack in passing yards per game are all "pass wacky" clubs--St. Louis, Kansas City, Indianapolis, and Minnesota.  The offense, then, need do nothing but try to keep as many of the players and coaches around as they can.  Yes, they had the odd bad game, but very few NFL clubs wouldn't trade the Packer offense for whatever they currently field.

On defense, though, the story is almost the opposite.  The Packers rank near the bottom of the league in almost every important statistic.  They rank 25th in yards per game, 29th in yards per play, 23rd in points per game, 25th in passing yards per game, and 26th in the league in takeaway margin at an astonishing -14.  The only "bright spot" for the Packers defense is that they managed to be ranked 14th in rushing yards allowed per game, though one wonders if that was more a function of Ahmad Carroll and Joey Thomas being such succulent targets in the passing game than a function of superior front seven play against the run.  Beyond the statistics, anyone who has watched any four Packer games this year has seen example after example of the defense blowing assignments, being in the wrong place, showing desultory effort, and time after time after time missing tackles.

Considering all of this, and keeping in mind that in general we think the Packer ship is captained by most capable sailors, me and Mr. Walker agree with the decision to gut the defensive coaching staff.  This is not to say that Bob Slowik is a bad coach, or that any of his assistants are bad coaches.  They might well find good jobs where they will be very successful in their post Packer lives.  But it's time to find new people to lead the defense. The greatest indictment of the current staff is the awful tackling.  In case you think tackling is a mysterious and lost art, remember New England at Pittsburgh game and how the Pats in particular tackled.  A team might get a six yard completion against the Steelers, but that six yard completion doesn't become a 40 yard gain against Pittsburgh.  How often in 2004 have Packer fans seen short plays become huge gains?

The Packers do, in fact, have some players on defense.  Nick Barnett and Na'il Diggs are excellent linebackers.  KGB is still a rare pass rushing threat.  Every now and then Cletidus Hunt looks like he could be worth $23.5 million.  Grady Jackson plays incredibly fast for a man the size of an aircraft carrier, and while the secondary had its problems there is young talent to develop at cornerback.  The Packers need to look to the best defensive teams in the league and see which one has a quality, experienced assistant to take over the defense.  For example, the Ravens currently employ Johnnie Lynn as one of their secondary coaches.  He was the NY Giants defensive coordinator for two years and their defensive backs coach for four.  During that time the Giants defense was usually excellent and occasionally amazing, while their offense let them down time and again. We're not saying Lynn specifically is the answer, but with those kind of talents in the NFL the Packers should work very hard to find a position coach with coordinator experience, or a position coach ready to move up and take the next step in his career.  In addition, they probably need to go out of the organization to find that person, looking at the top defensive teams like the Ravens, Jaguars, and Steelers to find the coach on one of those staffs who can at least make the Packers respectable on defense.  They might even look at the Jets staff--believe it or not the Jets are one of three teams tied for second place in points allowed per game at 16.3.  And the Packer defense needs only be respectable. With a top half of the NFL defense that can make a few stops in the fourth quarter the green and gold are instant contenders with their top ranking offense.  Me and Mr. Walker are always careful when suggesting a coaching change, after all coaches don't tackle, kick, throw, block, or catch.  But the players on defense, while perhaps not the best set of talent in the league, did not play to their ability in 2004--the Packers aren't one of the five or six least talented defenses in the NFL.  When players don't play to their ability, as the Packers did not throughout 2004, the blame has to fall on the coaching.  At this point it's time to try something new, and radically new.

We Got Ourselves a New Defensive Coordinator!  And Some New Coaches!

Having written the previous paragraphs a few months ago, the Green and Gold did in fact get a new coordinator for the defense but opted not to take a position coach and promote him.  Instead they hired deposed Miami head coach/defensive coordinator Jim Bates. Mike Sherman has shown a tendency in filling coaching vacancies to take the safe route of experience over youth.  Sometimes this is a good call, look at Mark Duffner and the super job he has done coaching the linebackers.  Also, look at the Slowik decision which clearly put a good coach in a position where he would morph inexplicably into a miserable coordinator.  At the same time, risk is the probability of an event times the impact if the event occurs.  Often something is called "low risk" because it is unlikely to produce a negative impact or likely to produce a moderate positive impact.  "High risk" is used pejoratively to note a decision that is unlikely to produce success or likely to fail. That tells only part of the story.  Hiring offensive coordinator Mike Holmgren to remake the Packers in the image of the 49ers, to bring Bill Walsh to the House that Vince Built, is a high risk decision.  So is trading a second round pick for a gun armed quarterback known to be wild both on and off the field.

Obviously, all of this hints to our feeling that by taking the "safe" pick of Jim Bates we may be seeing more Kurt Shottenheimer than Mike Holmgren.  That said, me and Mr. Walker listened to every minute of Bates' opening press conference twice (yes, we're that lame) and it's hard not to like him as a new coach.  He must have mentioned "tackling" twenty times at the least.  Had the Packers simply tackled better and not made mistakes so ravishingly stupid that they were obvious all the way in New Haven, CT, they team might have had a very different season.  It was also great to hear Bates talk about our pet statistic--points per game.  It would seem obvious that a defense that allows very few points per game is a good one, but when you hear a team ranked "fifth in defense in the NFL" that means they ranked fifth in total yards allowed.  In our opinion, the most important statistics for a defense are, in order, total points allowed per game, takeaways, yards allowed per pass attempt, and then total yards allowed.  Bates emphasized both stats, saying more than once that even during the awful year in Miami, his defense was able to keep the score low enough that the Fins had a chance to win the game.  That, to our ears, is excellent thinking.  With what will doubtless be another powerful offense, Bates need only field a team able to keep the opposition under 20 points to win a whole lot of games.

No Safety From the Guards

And now we come to the biggest news of the off-season that doesn't involve a guy wearing No. 4 returning to play--the Packers lost Darren Sharper, Marco Rivera, and Mike Wahle to free agency.  At first glance this would appear to be an unmitigated disaster, a setback that in effect was throwing in the towel for the next few years as the Packers go into rebuilding mode.  That, of course, is what many of the pundits are saying who rank the Packer offseason as the worst in the league.  Not surprisingly, me and Mr. Walker think a bit differently.  Like it or not, in the NFL it's easier to find a good player at some positions and harder at others.  The laws of microeconomics state that the greater the supply of something or the easier its acquisition, the less it's worth.  Quarterback is probably the toughest position to find a great player, because in addition to the rare ability of throwing a small oblong object very far with breathtaking accuracy, a QB also has to be smart enough to understand an offense, likable enough to get his players to work hard for him, tough enough to get up after being body slammed by Ted Washington, and consistent enough to do all of these things at least 16 weeks in a row. No wonder there aren't that many of them.  Other positions where there just aren't that many great players are the other highest paid positions; defensive end (size, speed, moves, agility), cornerback (speed, instincts, speed, speed), and left tackle (size, agility, toughness).

Now then, I had Mr. Walker don his google search cap and he found the following numbers.  The guaranteed money in Darren Sharper's contract is about $5 million, for Rivera the number is $9 million, and for Wahle about $12 million.  Perhaps with some restructuring of current contracts the Packers could have kept two of the three, while leaving themselves so squashed against the top of the salary cap that they would have had to ask Favre to restructure if they had to hire a new guy to take tickets at Lambeau.  And what did they lose by letting these players go?  An elite guard who might become a tackle, a super tough Pro Bowler with bad knees and 32 years of wear on him, and a mercurial safety who sometimes looked like a gamebreaker and other times looked like a genuine liability.  We also have to look at what positions these guys played.  The hard truth is that safeties are corners who are too slow or too stiff to cover, and guards are good linemen not good enough to play tackle.  Sure, there are rare exceptions, like Ronnie Lott and Sean Taylor and (come to think of it) LeRoy Butler who truly were safeties in their hearts.  But beyond those rare exceptions every safety in the NFL wishes he could run a 40 half a second faster and get paid like a cornerback.  The same rule goes for guards, every one of them would take tackle money to play tackle given the choice.

My guess is that Thompson took a look at his roster before free agency and said, "I'd like to keep all three, maybe I can keep two, but I'll probably only get one." Then, after the signings, my guess is he said "You're paying a $9 million bonus to a 32 year old GUARD?" I'm assuming that Thompson decided that with both tackles and the center playing under big contracts, and with Al Harris paid big money and Ahmad Carroll drawing a paycheck for a first round pick, it was time to spend some money elsewhere. And trust me, those people writing about how the Packers are having the worst off-season in the NFL?  If Thompson $20 million signing two of the three prominent free agents, three years from now those same writers would be accusing him of putting the Packers in cap jail trying to squeeze out one more championship for Favre.  The secondary worries me a bit, but with the quality of offensive line coaching the Packers have we don't think Brett will get beat up like Eli Manning.

Pre-Draft Strategy

I'm a history buff, from the ziggurats of Babylon to the mud in Flanders there's hardly a story I don't like to read.  For better or for worse, much of what a history buff reads about is war.  Certainly there were great accomplishments by other people, but I defy anyone but an academic specialist to name Rome's chief aqueduct engineer the year Caesar returned from Gaul.  One of my favorite current living war theorists is Will S. Lind, a cranky social conservative (I don't like that part) with a lot of fascinating ideas about how warfare is changing.  He wrote an article recently called On Strategy.  If you have the interest read it.  In that article he says that there are two main ways to build strategy.  One is to set a single objective that will assure you victory.  Usually this kind of strategy also means that NOT meeting that objective will insure defeat.  The other strategic style is to set a number of goals that would constitute a measure of success alongside a maximum goal that means true victory.  Often this second kind of strategy allows for more opportunities to win, fewer opportunities to lose, and a few chances to break even.

The "home run" draft for the Packers would be finding a starting safety, a stud linebacker, a good sized power end who can rush the passer opposite KGB, a couple of maulers to move to guard over the next few years, one more receiver, and a late round gem of a placekicker who makes us forget the kicker I still remember being called Ryan "Longshot" Longwell during his first training camp.  Trading up and down and going nuts to get that draft probably isn't going to work, and if anything our guess is that Thompson will move down to get extra picks instead of trying to fashion a perfect first draft.  Let's take an honest look at what the Packers need to do to become a better team.

In the offensive backfield, the Green and Gold are in remarkably good shape.  Ahman Green, Najeh Daveport, and Tony Fisher are a rare combination of size, speed, hands and finesse.  I've said it a hundred times; I wouldn't trade the Packer backfield for any in the league.  At QB, of course, the Packers are lucky to have one of the true historical greats. Backing up Favre are Craig Nall, J.T.  O'Sullivan, and Scott McBride.  Not a huge set of names, but one does not garner great fame playing behind Favre.  It wouldn't surprise me to see Nall become the No. 2 QB and either O'Sullivan or McBride become the No. 3. Despite what everyone says, me and Mr. Walker will be very, very surprised if Thompson takes a QB early.  In fact, the dark horse scenario for drafting a quarterback, in our opinion, is if Adrian McPherson is still around for the Packers at 54 or even 89.  Don't forget that despite the All American Green Bay image, Ron Wolf learned his job with the Raiders back in the day where anything short of rape or murder got a silver and black "boys will be boys" shrug.  The cupboard is similarly stocked at receiver, where Green Bay fields a burgeoning superstar (Javon Walker), a former Pro-Bowler (Donald Driver), and a tough young guy who would start for a lot of teams (Robert Ferguson).  Obviously, on the offensive line, Thompson will have to look seriously at anyone who can play tackle or guard.  There is good and bad news about the Packer draft on defense.  The good news is that it won't be hard to draft the best player on the board, because the bad news is that there isn't a position that couldn't use at least a little help.  Grady Jackson is getting old, the power end hasn't been good in years, two decent safeties left, and at least one new linebacker will be starting.

Post Draft Opinion

Having written the previous paragraphs just before the draft, I'd like to pat Mr. Walker on the back for being pretty sanguine.  Thompson did precisely the right thing, balancing picks for positions where the Packers need help right away with picks that are for the long term.  He also took a number of "safe" players but balanced them with a few "higher risk-reward" players.  The quotes are around those descriptions because nobody is really a safe pick at the NFL level.  As we predicted, he also traded down a good bit, working with the third most important law in the universe, right after gravity and the second law of thermodynamics.  The Law of Mark Tauscher states that your second day toss off pick might very well become the best right tackle in the league, while your tenth-overall-pickin- the-draft defensive end, for whom you surrender a treasure chest of money and picks, might very well become, well, Jamal Reynolds.  Me and Mr. Walker also like the fact that Thompson is looking off the beaten path for players.  Let's face it, nobody is going to get fired taking the best DB left from the SEC, but Thompson took some small school players and reclamation projects.  Only a few of them need to pan out to make this draft a real winner.

The most interesting of those reclamation projects, of course, is fifth round cornerback Michael Hawkins.  His post draft conference call is a case study in how NOT to do a sports interview.  He was candid, honest, and answered every question without referring to himself in the third person.  That same interview is also a spectacular reminder that while we hear a lot more about Drew Rosenhaus engineered holdouts than anything else, professional sports provides a Powerball like shot at fame and fortune for some of the poorest, most screwed over people in these rarely United States of America.  Imagine, for a moment, that you have to get on a conference call with a bunch of reporters a thousand miles away in which you will explain that you spent part of high school homeless, were physically and psychologically abused by your father, spent a fair amount of time recently working in a Wendy's, and quit college football after one semester.  Now imagine you're 21.  With that many "black marks" on the resume, why would the Packers be biting on Hawkins?  Packer scout Alonzo Highsmith referred to him as "one of the finest athletes I've ever worked out" and despite standing over 6'1" he ran a near Deion Sanders 40 yard dash time at or below 4.3.  Defensive coordinator Jim Bates was very honest about the choice, saying Hawkins was raw but if he panned out would be something special.  All of which reminds us of nothing so much as fellow Texan and formerly homeless teammate Donald Driver, another example of Packer seventh round larceny.  Will Hawkins follow in the Driver mode?  We don't know yet, but to his great credit Thompson was willing to give a player with almost limitless upside a second chance, and we will be following Mr. Hawkins carefully throughout training camp after declaring this column an Official Mike Hawkins Fan Zone.

About as far away as possible from the aptly named Dallas Desperadoes where Hawkins last played football was Aaron Rodgers, the University of California blue chipper who sky dived to the bottom of the first round before crash landing in Packerland.  Welcome to the club, Aaron!  On draft day, one of my co-workers who is a financial analyst and 49ers fan was outright jealous that while his club will be throwing Alex Smith a world historically large contact and putting him behind a line whose best player might be Yale educated starting tight end Eric Johnson, Rodgers will get to study his playbook and learn from one of the finest quarterbacks ever while probably not dirtying his shirt this year. It's not that my friend thinks Rodgers is a better player, but as a student of football and financial markets he has seen that nothing is sure when it comes to drafting quarterbacks and one is as likely to get Ryan Leaf as one is to get Peyton Manning.  Getting a quarterback with the stats and skills of Rodgers is a once per decade shot for any team, and usually said team has to turn in a clunker 3-13 season to get the chance.  For the Packers to have made the playoffs and then get such a player in the following draft is simply glorious.  Will Rodgers become the next Favre or the next Kyle Boller?  Anyone who says they know is lying to themselves and to you, but I'm sure Ted Thompson was thinking to himself, "My first pick for the Packers and I get Aaron Rodgers at 24?  I think I'm going to like this job." That whittling sound you hear is Aaron sharpening the chip on his shoulder.

Outside of blue chip Rodgers and Arena League leftover Hawkins, the green and gold managed to draft a class of eleven who vary from players where need is frankly desperate (safety) to apparent head scratchers like taking two receivers.  The offense/defense breakdown was five players on offense (QB Rogers, WR Terrance Murphy and Craig Bragg, OL Junius Coston and Will Whitaker) to six on defense (DB Nick Collins, Marviel Underwood, and Mike Hawkins, LB Brady Poppinga and Kurt Campbell, DE Mike Montgomery).  It's interesting how many "off the radar" players the Packers chose. Hawkins is one example, but OG Junius Coston is from North Carolina A&T, second round pick Nick Collins played his college ball at legendary football factory Bethune- Cookman, and LB Kurt Campbell will be moving up from Albany.  Yes, the Packers took players from big time schools like Texas A&M and BYU but it looks like Thompson is a man who will look under more than just the big rocks when he's trying to find a player. We'll be covering the incoming draft class as we get closer to training camp, but Me and Mr. Walker give Ted Thompson a big thumbs up on his first draft.  He didn't follow conventional wisdom, traded down to get new picks, might have picked up a true franchise quarterback, and did it all with class.  Welcome, new Packers, and thanks Ted!

The Other Mr. Walker Takes it to the Haus

Both Mr. Walker and myself were early onto the Javon Walker bandwagon.  I distinctly remember sitting in a bar with a friend when the Packers drafted him, and my absolute first response was "Who the **** is Javon Walker?" We all knew that Sherman was a miserable GM when he managed to pick a player who is becoming one of the truly standout receivers in the NFL, and a player Favre has publicly said might be the best he's ever played with.  And if any of you don't remember Sterling Sharpe in his prime, as prickly as he could be with the public I've never seen a receiver who combined size, speed, strength, hands, and technique like Sterling did.  So when Favre says his current 84 might be as good as his previous one it means something.

However, Walker has taken on shark-like agent Drew Rosenhaus and is demanding to renegotiate with two years left on his contract.  The Packers famously refused to renegotiate the last two year's of Mike McKenzie contract last year, and McKenzie played a glamour position nearly as highly paid as receiver and was a more proven commodity than Walker.  As good as Walker is, he really has one great season in the NFL for his bargaining chip, while McKenzie had multiple years as a likely top five cornerback.  It's hard for us to pick sides on this.  On the one hand, a speed player like Walker is one bad knee injury from being Keyshawn Johnson, and he ought to try to get his money while he can.  The Packers will be revisiting a lot of contracts on offense over the next few years (Favre, Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport, and others) so Javon might sensibly like to get his coin right now.  On the other hand, Mr. Walker reminds me that Javon signed a very good rookie contract and has two years left to play on it.  The Packers hold most of the bargaining power--Walker could retire tomorrow and if he unretires in three years he'll still owe the Packers the last two years of his current contract.  That's called the Barry Sanders Rule.  If Walker has a great 2005 he'll be in a position to get a blockbuster contract or play out 2006 for an even more insane free agent deal.  So we're sitting on the fence on this one.  If I were Javon and saw third stringers on other teams making more money than me, I'm not sure if I'd want to risk my neck going over the middle too often, but I also don't think it's a tactically good move to start with the holdout.  It would be one thing to go to the Packers and quietly try to negotiate and extension that realizes two things, that Walker has outplayed his rookie deal and that he needs to sign at some kind of discount if he wants an early extension that gives him insurance against injury.

Rosenhaus, however, seems to thrive on the public stirs he creates by encouraging players to get into adversarial situations with their employers.  Obviously that helps Drew make Drew bigger, but at some point it will start to be a problem even for him. Traditionally agents and those they represent (be they actors, musicians, or athletes) play a very complex game of good cop/bad cop.  Usually the agent is the bad cop and the client is the good cop for the team and the public.  Rosenhaus, however, seems to be pioneering a bad cop/bad cop system where both the player and agent wind up despised by both team and public.  That works for a while, of course, but the fact is that the NFL is the only successful socialist organization on planet earth and in essence the owners, agents, and players are all taking slices from a pie of finite size.  Particularly after T.O.  and Drew demanded a new contract ONE YEAR after signing with the Eagles, were I an NFL owner I would have to give greater weight to the agent chosen by a player when choosing who to draft or sign as free agents.  We'll be watching this as training camp nears.

Drugs

I have pontificated here previously about the NFL, drugs, and what I see as hypocrisy. Len Pasquarelli wrote another derisive, sarcastic, pun infested piece about Ricky Williams, a favorite whipping boy for Len, in the context of another player who has not made it back to the NFL after a marijuana/ecstasy driven yearlong suspension.  But this year's draft included a graphic example of what the NFL apparently cares about, and doesn't care about, when it comes to drugs.  The University of Wisconsin had two linemen, one on offense and one on defense, who were expected to be high draft picks but fell after testing positive for marijuana at the NFL combine.  Anttaj Hawthorne was a highly ranked defensive tackle, DT being a notoriously difficult position to draft, and Jonathan Clinkscale was a mid round prospect at offensive guard.  Barry Alvarez called Hawthorne "The best defensive lineman I've ever coached" and he was an all everything player at every level where he played.  After testing positive for marijuana Hawthorne dropped to the sixth round (to the Raiders, of course) and Clinksale signed with the Denver Broncos as a street free agent after not being drafted at all.

So then, the message here is "Don't do drugs.  It might cost you millions of dollars and a whole ocean of hurt." One would think so.  However, a couple of hour drive south of Madison, Northwestern's Luis Castillo was juicing to prepare for the combine and tested positive for drugs at the combine just like Hawthorne and Clinksale, but Castillo tested positive for steroids.  He claimed he was trying to aid the rehab of an elbow injury, and after the positive test he sent a letter to all 32 teams explaining what happened.  One would think steroid use the much more serious offense.  After all, marijuana will probably not have an effect on anything other than how many plates of nachos Anttaj Hawthorne eats, but steroids juice a player's performance or at least cover up for player deficiencies. Steroids are also particularly pernicious because once one player starts taking them the others almost have to follow suit.  The NFL is pretty much filled with genetic freaks already, so even a small edge by a player can be career ending for another guy trying to keep his job.  Nevertheless, Castillo was drafted as the 28th player overall by the San Diego Chargers.

For further reading on how the NFL treats steroids, check out this puffball piece by John Clayton (normally a fairly decent sports writer) at ESPN.com.  In it, Romanowski essentially admits to using steroids, this from a fine upstanding NFL citizen who spit on J.J Stokes during a game, was indicted (but acquitted) for obtaining slightly-better-than-trucker-speed diet pills fraudulently, and most damningly had to settle out of court with a former teammate Romanowski attacked during practice.  The last event is particularly horrifying, since Romanowski tore off the helmet of teammate Marcus Williams and crushed his eye socket to the point where Williams still suffers vision problems and cannot play pro football.  For causing grievous bodily harm to Williams, Romo was suspended one day (midweek, not a game day) and fined.  Of course, I don't know what steroids Bill was on, how much he took and for how long, that seems to be knowledge only available to folks connected to BALCO, in whose investigation Romo's name pops up quite often.  However, as someone who has spent some time in gyms with a lot of juicers, I can say that a practice fight with a teammate sounds a lot like 'roid rage to me.  But Ricky Williams is a junkie freak while John Clayton writes about Romanowski and his, sigh, commitment to playing the game.

As I've said here previously, it's completely within the rights of the NFL and their players union to negotiate whatever extra legal penalties for drug use they wish, and to choose which drugs they punish.  That stated, if I were an NFL player I would be a LOT more concerned that my opponent was juicing (and thereby putting my at greater risk to be injured and/or lose my job) than I would be if he was smoking pot.  Further, the NFL should be ashamed that an admitted college steroid user suffered no penalty on draft day while players who tested positive for a far more innocuous drug were taken out behind the woodshed and beaten up.  And Len Pasquarelli needs to lighten up.

The Super Bowl

For me personally, this was without a doubt the most boring Super Bowl matchup of my life.  I despise the Patriots for the shady dealings Bob Kraft pulled on my adopted home state of Connecticut.  I hate the Eagles because, well, they're the Eagles.  However, as much as I dislike the teams it was a pretty good game.  The Packers could certainly learn something from the Patriots--vary your game plan.  The Eagles showed up doing pretty much what they're been doing all year long and the Pats were ready to defend it.  The Eagles had a very difficult time adjusting.  Also, the clock management at the end of the game was absolutely horrid.  Down two scores with 5.40 left on the clock and no hurry up?  Can you imagine a Belichick coached team doing that?  Absolutely not.  I can't imagine a Sherman coached team doing that either.  Last but not least, it's worth remembering that the year the Packers won their Super Bowl they were one of the rare teams that could line up on either side of the ball, telegraph what they were going to do, do it anyway, and still beat the daylights out of someone.  The Super Bowl they lost, they were no longer that team, and in a rare case of Holmgren being outcoached, they squandered any chance at winning by totally abandoning the run in the second half.  They might have lost anyway, but they sealed their fate by refusing to give Dorsey Levens a chance.  The big drag with the Stupid Bowl this year is that now I have to hear self righteous Pats fans all off-season.  Damn.

A Quick Tour Around the NFC North

Before signing off with the Random Thoughts section, let's take a look at how things are shaping up in the rest of the division.

Minnesota Vikings - It has become common in the football punditry world to say that the Vikings are having the best off season in the NFL and had the best draft.  Pundits are supposed to be wise and learned people but rarely are.  Before any assessment can be made of the Vikings it must be stated that THEY LOST RANDY MOSS.  Sure, I find him to be as irritating as any player in the NFL, but Packer fans more than most ought to know that Moss is the most singular talent to arrive in the NFL since, at very least, Jerry Rice.  Football is such a team sport that it's rare a single player can take over a game. Favre could in his best days.  Ditto Barry Sanders and Joe Montana.  Randy Moss is that kind of player, and there is NO WAY to asses what kind of team the Vikings will be without Moss any more than it was possible to guess what kind of team the Lions would be without Sanders.  The wide receivers listed on the Vikings roster today are; Nate Burleson, Kelly Campbell, Ryan Hoag, Keenan Howry, Ben Nelson, Marcus Robinson, Travis Taylor, and 2005 draft pick Troy Williamson.  I'll take Randy Moss and a lamppost over any two of them.  Not that Burleson and Campbell aren't legitimate players, but Moss is cut from alien DNA and the rest of us just can't compare.

OK then, let's pretend that even though defenses suddenly won't have to rewrite their playbook the week they play the Vikings to stop Moss, it won't matter much.  They still will have a top five offense in 2005.  Even so, Minnesota ranked near the bottom in a host of defensive categories in 2004, will their acquisitions help much in 05?  Fred Smoot joins the secondary, and he is a great cover corner who doesn't like contact.  It will be interesting to see what he does against Charles Rogers and Javon Walker now that corners are almost not allowed to play defense.  Darren Sharper is the other main addition on defense, and Packer fans know better than anyone that when Sharper brings his "A game" there isn't anyone much better, but he seems to leave that game on the bus a lot more often than one would like.  They have a superstud DT in Kevin Williams and a potential superstar in rookie Erasmus James, but rookies sometimes play like rookies.  All in all, the Vikings look like an 8-8 team that had a good draft, some potentially good free agent signing, and lost one of the greatest players every to lace up cleats.

Detroit Lions - We realize that we are going against the grain on this one, but Detroit is a team that is a little bit scary.  Me and Mr. Walker have always been big Steve Mariucci fans, he did more with less in San Francisco than probably any coach could have.  This will be his third year in Detroit, the third year in his systems, and some really tough seasons might be starting to pay off for the club.  Detroit's first two picks in the 2005 draft were for two USC players, Mike Williams in the first round and Shawn Cody in the second.  The Williams pick was widely panned, but he gives Detroit a trio of quite scary fast, tall, strong, and young receivers.  Who do you double team; Mike Williams, Roy Williams, or Charles Rogers?  Not a decision I'd like to make, and a decision I'd enjoy even less while starting the diminutive Ahmad Carroll or Fred Smoot.  The wild card is quarterback, where Joe Harrington has not played as well as expected and Jeff Garcia is the backup.

On defense, the Lions picked up USC DT Shawn Cody to play next to superstar Shaun Rogers.  The Packers had one of the best offensive lines in the league in 2004 and they had a devil of a time keeping Rogers from playing most of the game three yards behind the line of scrimmage.  Me and Mr. Walker think the job will be even more difficult if Cody plays anything like the player he was in college.  A note on the Packer angle--one of the few good reasons for the green and gold to have paid big money for guards is that while the NFC North has relatively few standout defensive ends, it has a number of superb tackles.  Asking, say, Grey Ruegamer and Kevin Barry to deal with Shaun Rogers and Kevin Williams is asking rather a lot.  This is not to say that the Lions can't screw this up like they usually do, but Mariucci has been stockpiling talent and getting his guys in place.  Detroit might be one of the few possible "worst to first" scenarios in the NFC other than the Panthers.

Chicago Bears - Lovie Smith seems like a really fine fellow.  Too bad he has to coach this team.  I wonder what Mushin Muhammad will think when he's playing on an ice rink in December and has to shag balls from Chad Hutchinson of Kurt Kittner because Rex is hurt again?  There is still a ways to go before the promised land.

Random Thoughts

We mentioned Jamal Reynolds.  Ron Wolf traded up to the tenth spot in the draft to take the defensive end.  A few players who were taken later than Reynolds in the first and second rounds of 2001 include; Dan Morgan, Adam Archuleta, Will Allen, Todd Heap, Drew Brees, Chad Johnson, Kris Jenkins (!), Fred Smoot, and Chris Chambers.

Bill Simmons, The Sports Guy at Page 2 on ESPN.com, referred to Favre as a Dan Marino player all season during 2004.  As in, an old guy who can't play anymore, still trying to win games on his own.  Simmons also adores his Patriots QB Tom Brady and sings his praises from the mountaintop.  Brady's QB rating for the whole 2004 season? Ninth in the league at 92.6.  Favre?  Tenth the NFL at 92.4.  Is Brady a better QB that Favre?  I think not.  Life's a little easier in the playoffs after a bye week with a defense that gets three picks every game.  And Brady looked distinctly human in the first half of the Stupid Bowl playing on a better team than Favre has in a while.

One more big up to the guys who run Packer Palace.  It's been great fun and I'll do it all again next year if they let me.  Thanks guys.

We've developed and addiction to English Premiership soccer, a sport Malcolm Glazer of the Tampa Bay Bucs is currently splashing into.  As whiny and irritating as NFL players can be sometimes, world class soccer players make them look like dedicated, hard working, low key folks.  It's pretty funny.

At mid-season I predicted the Packers would split with the Vikings, split Jacksonville and Philly, and win the rest to finish 10-6 and win the NFC North.  I got the record right, but they swept Minnesota and lost to the Iggles and Panthers.  Not bad, eh?

If you have actually read this whole thing, made it right here to the bitter end, please email me at meandmrwalker@gmail.com.  I'm going to do a drawing of everyone who emails me and the winner gets some silly present.

TCB is a contributing writer for Packer Palace.
© June 28, 2005. 

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